Series 79 practice questionmediumTerminal Value Calculation
If an analyst uses a perpetuity growth rate of 5% in the terminal value calculation for a US-based company, what concern should a senior banker raise?
- AThe growth rate is too low to capture the company's potential
- BThe perpetuity growth rate must always be zero
- CThe growth rate should match the company's historical revenue CAGR
- DA 5% perpetuity growth rate exceeds long-term nominal GDP growth and implies the company will eventually become larger than the entire economy, which is unrealistic✓ Correct answer
Explanation
Why D — A 5% perpetuity growth rate exceeds long-term nominal GDP growth and implies the company will eventually become larger than the entire economy, which is unrealistic
A perpetuity growth rate of 5% is generally considered too high for a terminal value calculation because it exceeds the long-term nominal GDP growth rate of the US (typically assumed at 2-3%). Using a growth rate above GDP implies the company will continuously gain market share indefinitely and eventually become larger than the entire economy, which is mathematically impossible. Standard practice is to use a terminal growth rate between 2-3% for US companies, roughly in line with expected long-term nominal GDP growth.
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